Tungsten prices have shattered previous records in 2025, driven by China’s aggressive export restrictions and rising global military demand. As supplies tighten, investors are increasingly turning to tungsten as a strategic critical minerals play.
Tungsten Price Trend: The Last 5 Years
Tungsten has experienced dramatic volatility over the past five years. After trading at relatively depressed levels during the COVID-19 pandemic, prices began a strong recovery in 2022 amid supply chain disruptions and rising geopolitical tensions.
Here’s a breakdown of average ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices in Rotterdam:
| Year | Average APT Price (per metric ton) | Key Driver |
| 2021 | ~$280 | Post-COVID demand slump |
| 2022 | ~$420 | Energy crisis & supply concerns |
| 2023 | ~$580 | Industrial recovery |
| 2024 | ~$950 | Early China quota tightening |
| 2025 (YTD) | Above $3,000 | Export curbs + defense stockpiling |
As of late 2025, APT prices have surged more than 200% year-to-date, breaking through all previous historical highs. This marks one of the strongest rallies in the tungsten market in over a decade.
China dominates global tungsten production, accounting for roughly 80% of world supply. In 2025, Beijing introduced strict new export controls and significantly reduced domestic mining quotas. By December 2025, Chinese authorities announced that only 15 companies would be permitted to export tungsten products during 2026–2027.
The situation escalated further in February 2025 when China banned exports of dual-use tungsten items to 20 Japanese entities linked to military supply chains. These moves have created immediate supply anxiety outside China, pushing buyers to pay premium prices.
Tungsten’s unique properties — extreme hardness, high density, and exceptional heat resistance — make it irreplaceable in aerospace components, armor-piercing munitions, high-temperature alloys, and cutting tools used in defense manufacturing.
Defense Demand vs Automotive Consumption
According to Project Blue, the global tungsten market reached approximately 129,000 metric tons in 2025. Defense applications currently represent about 12% of total demand, but this share is projected to rise to roughly 15% by 2027–2028 as major powers replenish stockpiles amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Defense-sector demand is growing at around 8% per year. Senior analyst Cristina Belda at Argus forecasts that if current trends continue, the defense industry could overtake the automotive sector as tungsten’s largest consumer by the mid-2030s.
The automotive industry still accounts for 25–30% of global tungsten consumption, primarily in cutting tools and wear-resistant parts. However, the shift toward electric vehicles (EVs) is expected to gradually reduce tungsten use in this sector over time.
New Supply Coming Online — But Not Fast Enough
Outside China, new production is slowly emerging. Canadian company Almonty Industries began commercial mining at its Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea in March 2025. A Phase 2 expansion is scheduled for 2027 and could significantly boost non-Chinese supply.
The United States currently has zero active commercial tungsten mines. Several projects are in development, but most analysts do not expect meaningful domestic production before the late 2020s at the earliest. This continued heavy reliance on Chinese supply leaves Western nations vulnerable to further price spikes and potential shortages.
Investment Outlook for Tungsten
With tungsten prices at record levels and structural supply constraints in place, many investors are viewing tungsten mining and processing companies as attractive opportunities in the critical minerals space. Governments worldwide are prioritizing tungsten as a strategic material for national security and advanced manufacturing.
Key takeaway: The combination of China’s export curbs, robust military demand, and limited near-term alternative supply suggests tungsten prices could remain elevated well into 2026 and beyond.
Investors interested in the tungsten market should closely monitor developments in China’s export policy, progress at Almonty’s South Korean operations, and any new policy support for domestic production in the US and Europe.
